What a Trump Presidency Means for Hollywood
It’s gonna be a mixed bag. Here are some of my predictions:
But first…
Moving International Will Continue and Strengthen
One thing is certain with a Trump presidency: volatility. Hollywood has enough craziness without the orange one pumping out even more. Smart studios, producers and others at the top of the film food-chain will want to avoid that potential BS by moving their work to less volatile and less restrictive countries.
Spain in particular is already doing well. Hungary and Poland also have great incentives, offering a 30% rebate on production spending, though they’re not about to be outdone by Slovakia which is topping the rebate charts at 33%. Activity is cooling in the Czech Republic now that they’ve lowered their own incentives to 20%. The irony that a bunch of these places are building faux California style sets is not lost on me.
All this being said, if Trump continues to make enemies instead of friends we could find the international movement cut short and be forced to work back home. I wouldn’t be totally mad about that, but big business looking to save money won’t be a fan.
For now, look up the tax incentives across the pond. Choose locales with favorable conditions and you might give yourself a leg up.
Antitrust Fears Fall
Trump likes big business. He’s not about to break up a bunch of behemoths in order to increase competition. Consolidation will remain the name of the game. Expect to see increased collaboration on everything. The big guys have been toeing the line on what is truly reasonable here for a long time. Now that Trump is in, they’re probably sighing a breath of relief.
Tariffs Won’t Impact Hollywood… Directly
Will they impact nearly everything else in our world and have a trickle down effect? Almost certainly.
According to the LA Times, “If Trump follows through with his threats of global tariffs, nations like China could ban U.S. imports, including film and TV shows, which would dent the already-reeling distribution market,” which is technically true.
However, the big tariff targets like China weren’t really buying much American media anyways. In 2024, only 2 Hollywood films made a dent at the Chinese Box Office: Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire & Alien: Romulus. Other Hollywood films are frequently watered down significantly in order to meet China’s strict media requirements.
Honestly I think trying to make everyone happy is a great recipe for making no one happy and I, for one, would not be sad to have that move off the table… despite China’s un-ignorable giant pocketbook.
Attacks on Specific Networks and Freedom of the Press are Almost Assured
Honestly, I have no idea how they’re going to handle this. The only thing I can think of is at least these major businesses have a lot of money and plenty of experience with litigious bullshit. There will certainly be some major fights down the line and lawyers will happily take the payday.
“Conservative” Programming Will See a Boost
Films don’t necessarily need to be conservative to appeal to the conservative market - take Twisters for example. It took in a powerful $80.5 Million in it’s opening weekend. There’s an obvious appeal to rural and middle America here - one that shouldn’t be overlooked.
On the television side Yellowstone has been a massive hit. That being said, the show is about to be over and we already see a variety of spinoff contenders lining up to fill its shoes.
Lefty Content Will Also See a Boost
The last time Trump entered the White House we got some pretty great content, which resonated much more deeply than it likely would have under Hillary Clinton. Take for instance, The Handmaids Tale, Black Panther, and Don’t Look Up.
Programs like The White Lotus, will probably continue to flourish as well.
To sum up the previous 2 sections: Powerful voices with strong vision will come out on top. Middling crap will wash away.
Advertising Will Continue to Push Its Way Back into Content
The truth is, this industry just isn’t financially viable without advertising. It never really was and that’s become increasingly clear as the big push to streaming is finally slowing its roll. I expect we’ll see a lot more blatant product placement as studios continue to partner with our corporate overlords.
If you’re an indie production company, I’d definitely try to reach out to corporate sponsors to get funds moving.
Private Venture Capital May Loosen Their Purse Strings
Let’s face it, even though a lot of Trumps economic policies are terrible, he does have a clear goal of making the rich richer. If the stock market today is any indication of what is to come for the ultra wealthy, things are looking good. When the wealthy feel more comfortable with their pocketbooks, they’re more likely to spend on potentially frivolous fun: aka financing films.
I’m a bit tenuous on this one, though I hope it turns out to be the case. The entertainment industry is widely considered to be a poor investment at this time.
“Social Media” Will Continue to Grow and Battle Hollywood for Attention
Honestly, this is where I see the next big people coming from. Social Media isn’t really social media anymore, they’re just a different type of studio that figured out how to outsource their needs for content to folks who will do it for free.
Savvy indie filmmakers should embrace the change and use it to their advantage the best they can (especially when it comes to marketing). These supposed short-form only spaces are expanding run times to greater and greater lengths. How long is it until some TikTok creator releases a feature under traditional distribution? Not long, I’m thinking.
People aren’t against longer run times, (have you seen how long some of these podcasts are???) they just aren’t interested in middling material.
Creatives Won’t Do Much Through the End of the Year
Things tend to slow down in November and through the end of the year as the holidays settle in anyways. The broadly uber-liberal swath of creatives will likely enter a depressed hibernation early this year.
For everyone looking to slack off and be sad: I get it. Take a moment to rest. But don’t take too long. Now is the time to plan, finish scripts, do some housekeeping and network the fuck out of some holiday parties.
Anytime you can be productive while the rest of the industry is in a lull, you’ll wind up having an advantage when things finally pick up.
Hoping I’m not reporting from Gilead in the coming years,
Kate
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Sources & Further Reading:
https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/business/story/2024-11-06/trumps-effect-on-entertainment-industry
https://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/story/does-hollywood-have-the-energy-to-resist-trump-all-over-again
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/international-industry-ponders-impact-of-second-trump-presidency-afm2024-1236055283/
https://variety.com/2023/film/global/spain-tax-incentives-spain-film-commission-1235557003/
https://variety.com/2024/film/global/hungary-film-incentive-extended-six-years-1236194109/
https://www.ep.com/production-incentives/europe/poland/
https://www.ep.com/production-incentives/europe/slovakia/
https://www.praguereporter.com/home/2024/7/30/czech-film-and-tv-producers-push-for-boost-in-production-incentives/
https://variety.com/2024/film/news/twisters-box-office-opening-weekend-surprise-hit-1236079430/
https://variety.com/2022/tv/awards/yellowstone-taylor-sheridan-western-1235235606/
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/lists/yellowstone-spinoffs-guide/
https://variety.com/2024/tv/news/streaming-commercials-in-movies-wicked-curb-enthusiasm-succession-1236004024/
https://www.marketwatch.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-futures-soar-800-bitcoin-rockets-yields-jump-on-trump-victory
https://the-handmaids-tale.fandom.com/wiki/Republic_of_Gilead_(Series)
